Kalshi WC Bot
NAME
kalshi-wc-bot - Kalshi WC Bot
SYNOPSIS
ML trading bot for 2026 World Cup match markets on Kalshi.
DESCRIPTION
A quant bot for FIFA World Cup 2026 match outcome markets. It pulls data from six sources, builds time-safe features, prices each match with a calibrated model, and trades when its probability beats Kalshi's implied price.
The pipeline runs ingest, features, model, edge detection, Kelly sizing, order, settle, and log on a schedule.
STACK
Python, XGBoost, SQLite, Kalshi API, APScheduler
HIGHLIGHTS
- Dixon-Coles goals model with an ELO strength prior, a calibrated XGBoost fallback, and a logistic baseline it has to beat
- Trades only at 4%+ edge over Kalshi's implied probability, sized with half-Kelly and a hard 5% bankroll cap
- Live limit orders through the Kalshi API, settled to a SQLite ledger, with a Rich CLI dashboard
- Look-ahead guard on every feature and a time-ordered backtest (2018 dev, 2022 holdout)
- 80% profitable hit rate on live bets